Rent the season or buy the sunshine? The snowbird math for 2026-27

Every fall, I get the same question. "Gina, we have rented for three winters now. Should we just buy?" It is a great question, and the honest answer is it depends on your math and your life. Let’s walk through both.

What renting really costs

Let us start with real numbers for the January through March 2027 season. A furnished two- or three-bedroom rental in Cape Coral or Fort Myers runs roughly $3,500 to $5,500 a month in peak season, and pool homes, the classic snowbird setup in Cape Coral, run up to about $6,800. On Fort Myers Beach, where inventory is still tight, expect $5,000 to $10,000 a month for something comparable, and beachfront or Gulf-view units can run well past $10,000. February is the priciest month of the three.

Do the multiplication and a three-month season cost somewhere between $11,000 and $30,000 in rent, before taxes and fees. Florida adds a 6 percent state transient rental tax plus the county tourist tax on stays under six months, and most landlords also charge a security deposit and a cleaning fee. On the plus side, seasonal rentals typically include furnishings, linens, Wi-Fi, and utilities, and many owners discount the monthly rate for a full three-month commitment. Booking direct instead of through a platform can save you the service fees too.

So, call it $12,000 to $33,000 all in for three months of sunshine with zero maintenance headaches. That is the number to beat.

What buying really costs

Now the other side. The median sold price in Cape Coral was $364,950 as of September 2026. Let us use a $400,000 condo as our example, bought with 20 percent down.

Your monthly carrying costs would look roughly like this: mortgage payment around $2,100 (at current rates on a $320,000 loan), property taxes around $400 to $500 a month, homeowner's insurance around $700 a month (Florida averages about $8,500 a year, the highest in the country, so get a binding quote before you fall in love with a place), HOA fees of $400 to $700 a month for most condos, and flood insurance if you are in a flood zone. All in, you are looking at roughly $3,800 to $4,500 a month to carry the property, or about $46,000 to $54,000 a year, before maintenance.

That is more than double the cost of renting for three months. But here is the thing: you own it for twelve months, not three.

The breakeven question

Buying starts to make financial sense when one of these is true. You plan to come for five or more seasons, which spreads the transaction costs (roughly 2 to 4 percent to buy, 8 to 10 percent to eventually sell) across enough years. You will rent it out during the months you are away. The right property keeps renting through the off season, but nothing rents every night of a Florida summer, so pencil in realistic occupancy rather than a full nine months of income. SWFL vacation rentals can generate strong income in season. Or you expect appreciation to do some of the heavy lifting, though I never advise buying on that hope alone.

A quick rule of thumb: if your annual carrying costs are less than 60 percent of what renting it at realistic occupancy for the other nine months, plus your own three months of use would cost, buying deserves a serious look.

The factors no spreadsheet captures

Here is what the math misses. Owners get their pick of dates, their own furnishings, and no annual hunt for a rental. They also get hurricane prep, HOA special assessments, and a second home to maintain from a thousand miles away. Renters get flexibility and zero responsibility, but they also get annual price increases and the very real chance their favorite rental sells out from under them.

The question I ask every snowbird client is this: do you want a winter routine or a winter asset? There is no wrong answer, but the answer tells you which column you belong in.

Call to action

Thinking through the rent-versus-buy decision for this season or next? I will run the real numbers for your situation, including current rental rates and purchase options in the neighborhoods you love. Call or text me at 612.209.6205 or set up a quick meet at the link below. No pressure, just math.